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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 30

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 4-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.44 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.33 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model