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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 4

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 4-A.Vinatieri 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.87 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 4, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP