Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to IND 15, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 30 for 15 yards (56-S.Finch). PENALTY on IND-14-Z.Pascal, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model