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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 58

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 2-R.Sanchez punts 41 yards to TEN 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.30 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP