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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 38

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to IND 17, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 21 for 4 yards (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model