Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 84

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 6-B.Kern punts 58 yards to IND 26, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on IND-32-A.Maulet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.56 EP
59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 84, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model