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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 16

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 43-N.Bellore to CHI 11 for 5 yards (59-D.Trevathan). CHI-20-P.Amukamara was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.07 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model