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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CHI 14, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 28 for 14 yards (43-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP