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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 22

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(4:03) 1-C.Parkey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model