Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 55

Chicago Bears 9 – Detroit Lions 7

(4:44) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model