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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 2

Detroit Lions 13 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 5-M.Prater 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +4.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 2, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.38 EP