Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 79

Chicago Bears 16 – Detroit Lions 16

(6:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to DET 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-T.Jones to DET 41 for 9 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model