Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 63

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 0

(3:30) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 8, Center-48-P.Scales. 13-T.Jones to DET 16 for 8 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model