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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 75

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 6-S.Martin punts 39 yards to CHI 36, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 37 for 1 yard (26-D.Shead).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 32, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP