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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 24-N.Chubb left guard to CIN 21 for 1 yard (50-J.Evans). Cincinnati challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.25 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model