Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 35

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-A.Callaway to CLE 30 for 6 yards (42-C.Fejedelem). CIN-29-T.McRae was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.88 EP
59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model