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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 20 – Cleveland Browns 35

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Tate (21-D.Ward).

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.15 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model