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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 47

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at CLE 35 for 12 yards (53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.17 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model