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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 14 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(:16) 10-K.Huber punts 51 yards to CLE 7, Center-46-C.Harris. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 14 for 7 yards (57-V.Rey; 46-C.Harris). PENALTY on CLE-82-O.Charles, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at CLE 7.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.17 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model