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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 68

Buffalo Bills 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to JAX 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.04 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 68, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model