Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(11:40) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to JAX 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-51-J.Stanford.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.36 EP
68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model