Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

(14:16) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to BUF 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for 9 yards (48-L.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model