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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.72 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 55, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP