Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 78

Buffalo Bills 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

(6:20) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to JAX 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-D.Westbrook to BUF 47 for 21 yards (42-P.DiMarco, 69-R.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.41 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model