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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to JAX 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-16-R.Foster.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model