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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 4

Buffalo Bills 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 4-S.Hauschka 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.88 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 4, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model