Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to BUF 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 14 for -2 yards (57-N.DeLuca). FUMBLES (57-N.DeLuca), RECOVERED by JAX-36-R.Harrison at BUF 18. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to BUF 16, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 14 for -2 yards (57-N.DeLuca).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.77 EP
59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model