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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to MIA 34, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 10-K.Stills.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.94 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.41 EP