Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(12:46) 2-M.Haack punts 49 yards to IND 14, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.11 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model