Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 60

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

(10:23) 2-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.99 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model