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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 39

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(3:59) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 12-A.Luck to MIA 35 for 4 yards (20-R.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.56 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model