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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 2-R.Sanchez punts 8 yards to IND 41, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 55-J.Baker MUFFS catch, touched at IND 41, recovered by MIA-93-A.Spence at IND 42. 93-A.Spence to IND 42 for no gain (46-L.Rhodes). Deflected by MIA #47

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP