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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.18 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model