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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(10:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 30 for 1 yard (22-T.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 41, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model