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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model