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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 90

Miami Dolphins 24 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 2-M.Haack punts 62 yards to IND 28, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-C.Rogers to IND 42 for 14 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.41 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 90, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 47, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model