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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 7 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 2-M.Haack punts 35 yards to IND 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 43, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.75 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP