4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 33

New York Giants 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 2-A.Rosas 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.11 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -2.04 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model