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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.54 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 24, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model