Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 94

New York Giants 19 – Philadelphia Eagles 11

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to NYG 44, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-G.Tate to NYG 47 for -3 yards (31-M.Thomas, 82-S.Simonson). FUMBLES (31-M.Thomas), and recovers at NYG 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.56 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.54 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 94, worth -5.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model