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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 88

New York Giants 19 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to PHI 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-G.Tate to PHI 39 for 7 yards (93-B.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -3.41 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.90 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 88, worth -5.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model