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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 7

New York Giants 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model