4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(10:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 55 yards to SEA 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.19 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.66 EP