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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 82

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 62 yards to CAR 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 18-D.Byrd to CAR 25 for 5 yards (49-SM.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -3.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 82, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 40, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model