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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 87

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to CAR 47, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-58-A.Calitro.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +1.15 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model