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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 10 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(:01) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model