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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right guard to CAR 12 for 1 yard (59-L.Kuechly; 97-M.Addison).

The Three Options

GO +3.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.89 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model