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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 12

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 11-S.Janikowski 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model