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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 35

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.26 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model