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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 9-G.Gano 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.29 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 7, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP